The US makes a new push to bolster Taiwan's military defenses. China won't like it.
Taiwanâs president, Tsai Ing-wen, waves during a ceremony to commission new U.S.-made Apache helicopters at a military base on July 17. (Sam Yeh-AFP/Getty Images) July 23 at 2:05 PM John Pomfret, a former Washington Post bureau chief in Beijing, is the author of âThe Beautiful Country and the Middle Kingdom: America and China, 1776 to the Present.â
The State Departmentâs recently reported request for Marines to return to Taiwan for the first time since 1979 to defend the de facto U.S. embassy there is not an isolated event. Instead, it underscores what appears to be newfound willingness within the U.S. government and Congress to challenge China and pay more attention to Taiwanâs defense.
For several decades, Washington followed a policy that shied away from irritating China when it came to Taiwan. As the island of 23 million evolved into one of Asiaâs most vibrant democracies, with a boisterously free press, successive American administrations were careful not to provoke Beijing even as they tried to shelter Taiwan diplomatically and provide for the territoryâs defense.
An influential report written in 2008 by a retired U.S. naval commander was embraced by officials from the Obama administration because it argued that the United States no longer needed to sell Taiwan big-ticket items, such as fighter jets, or support its submarine program, which would anger Beijing. Instead, the author, William Murray, contended that Taiwan could forgo an air force and a bi g navy and focus instead on making itself a âporcupineâ by adding smaller weapons systems and mobile infantry units that could defend Taiwanâs beaches from an all-out Chinese assault. The logic, in the words of Thomas X. Hammes, a former Marine Corps colonel now at the Institute for National Strategic Studies at the National Defense University, was that âa grizzly bear can eat a porcupine anytime it wants to, but it just isnât worth the pain.â
However, intensifying Chinese pressure on Taiwan, a growing disenchantment with China within the ranks of the U.S. government and Congress, and the rise to prominence of Taiwanâs friends within the Trump administration have presaged a move away from the âporcupineâ strategy toward one more willing to confront Beijing. This trend could continue further if President Trump, always unpredictable, lets his advisers on the National Security Council and Defense Department have their way.
Starting earlier this year, Chi naâs air force fighters and bombers began circling Taiwan, forcing Taiwanâs air force to scramble its jets. In late April, Chinaâs state-run television released footage of Peopleâs Liberation Army forces invading a mock Taiwanese village. And late last month, Chinese naval forces had a drill in the Taiwan Strait. Meanwhile, on the diplomatic front, the Dominican Republic became the third country in less than two years to sever official ties with Taiwan to favor China. Now, because of Beijingâs accelerating campaign to diplomatically isolate Taipei, only 19 countries recognize Taiwan.
Chinaâs tactics have alienated many members of a younger generation of State Department officials who used to be considered the strongest proponents of smooth relations with Beijing. Exasperation with China has bled into Congress, which has adopted its most activist position on Taiwan since 1979, when Congress defied the administration of then-President Jimmy Carter to pass the Taiwan Relations Act, mandating that the U.S. government help in Taiwanâs defense.
In February, the House and Senate unanimously passed the Taiwan Travel Act, which called on the Trump administration to send high-ranking U.S. officials to liaise with Taiwanâs government. Both in the Pentagon and on the National Security Council, Trump administration officials are far more sympathetic to Taiwanâs challenges than their counterparts have been in the past. They have given the U.S. Navy more leeway to challenge China in the Pacific. Earlier this month, the Navy dispatched two destroyers through the Taiwan Strait for the first time since 2017.
In April, the State Department approved a plan to allow U.S. defense companies to explore selling Taiwan technology and weapons systems for its submarine program. The decision marked the first sign of life in an endeavor that last received U.S. support in 2001 when President George W. Bush announced a U.S. program to help Taiwan purcha se eight diesel submarines.
Itâs still a long shot whether Taiwan is going to be able to cobble together a new submarine, but this move marks a major break with the Obama administration, which had essentially shelved the deal. In another shift, thereâs also talk now among experts and industry sources that the U.S. government is seriously considering selling Taiwan jet fighters for the first time since 1992. Senior Republicans in the Senate have called on the Trump administration to sell Taiwan the F-35. Others have argued for an upgraded version of the F-16, which since the sale in 1992 has served as the backbone of Taiwanâs air force.
The Trump administration is also pushing Taiwanâs government, led by President Tsai Ing-wen, to substantially increase its defense spending. American officials have said that ideally Taiwan should double its defense outlays. Taiwan currently devotes less than 2 percent of its gross domestic product to defense.
Some experts , such as Ian Easton, the author of âThe Chinese Invasion Threatâ and a research fellow at Project 2049 Institute, think that this shift in U.S. policy is overdue and that the United States needs to support both big-ticket items such as fighters for an air force, as well as armed drones, smart mines and other weapons that were part of the porcupine strategy, too.
âThere are certain capabilities that no other country can provide Taiwan,â he said. âIf we donât, no one will.â
The wild card in this equation is Trump. Will Trump sell Taiwan down the river in order to make a deal with China over trade or North Korea, or will he listen to the advice from Congress and give Taiwan the help it needs?
Of course, if Trump increases American support of the sole democratic Chinese territory in the world, China will be furious. When reports emerged that the State Department had requested Marines to protect the American Institute in Taiwan, the de facto American e mbassy on the island, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesman urged the Trump administration to âexercise caution.â Should the United States start selling Taiwan jet fighters again, the reaction from Beijing will be substantially worse.Source: Google News Taiwan | Netizen 24 Taiwan